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Cast it that way.

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It's an important piece of--

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[SIDE CONVERSATION]

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Welcome.

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Welcome to the Laboratory for
Computer Science Distinguished

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Lecture series.

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Welcome to all of you
here and to those of you

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out at Lincoln Labs who
are attending by TV.

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[INAUDIBLE] is out of town
today pushing his book,

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which I'm sure he'll--

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I'll be happy if
you buy a copy of.

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So he's not here today.

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I'll be standing in for him
introducing our speaker.

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We're pleased today to have as
our distinguished lecturer Dr.

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Anita Jones, who is the
director of defense, research,

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and engineering, the DDR&E. I'll
try to take a little of Mike's

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style and give the
more extended biography

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and so on as he likes to do
for our distinguished lectures,

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in part to give our young
students a role model

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to follow so they can
learn from the experiences

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of our distinguished lecturers.

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Anita Jones was born in Fort
Worth, Texas and educated

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in the public
school system there.

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Her father worked on the
mapping of oil and gas reserves.

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She recalls having
good teachers who

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always encouraged her
to do math and science

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and remembers loving geometry
and trigonometry, especially.

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She attended Rice
University, where

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she received a BA
in mathematics,

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and then attended the
University of Texas at Austin

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where she received
an MA in literature.

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Afterwards, she decided
that working in technology

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would be the best way
to support herself

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and identified three hot areas
that were ready to explode.

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One of them was biology.

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One was computing.

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And one was psychology.

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She now figures two out
of three wasn't bad.

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She chose computing and went to
work for IBM's federal system

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division in Washington, where
she had her first programming

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course in 360 assembler
and her first programming

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assignment working on an
operating system for IBM's

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dual processor 360-65.

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She remembers the way it
worked was to just lock out

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the second processor when
the first was executing

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the operating system.

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Anyway, she fell in love with
operating systems at that time.

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After two years
there, she decided

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to try a University and
persuaded IBM to send her

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to 545 Technology Square, where
IBM had offices at the time,

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where she could take courses
at MIT at the same time.

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While working on programming
environment systems

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with Marc [? Auslander, ?]
she recalls

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taking Minsky's AI course
and Tony [INAUDIBLE]

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operating systems
course, as well as

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meeting and collaborating with
many of the Tech Square CS

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folks.

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She then decided to
get a PhD and chose

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to go to Carnegie Mellon.

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After having some industrial
experience under her belt,

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she felt strongly about
what she wanted to take

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and remembers having arguments
with Alan Perlis about getting

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excused from some standard,
required course in order

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to take Nico Habermann's
operating system course.

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Nico was visiting
there at the time.

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Her PhD thesis was on
capability-based schemes

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for controlling
access to information,

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which had an impact on how
HYDRA and later operating

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systems at CMU were developed.

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She stayed on at CMU as
an assistant professor,

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turning down an offer from MIT.

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She wonders how her life
might have been different

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if she'd stayed in here.

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Although she did
spend the summer

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of '73 working at Tech
Square with Jerry Saltzer,

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and Dave Clark, and others.

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As for the debatable
question which

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we hear a lot of talk
about about staying on

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at one's institution, she
says that at Carnegie Mellon,

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senior graduate students feel
like peers of the faculty.

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She felt very comfortable just
staying on as a faculty member

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there.

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She enjoyed CMU immensely
as it was an excellent place

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to build systems.

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And she participated in the
multiprocessor [? CM* ?]

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and [? STAROS ?] projects, where
she even wrote some critical

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microcode for the kernel.

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She was promoted to
associate professor.

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She also married Bill Wulf,
who was on the faculty there.

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And in the early
'80s, the two of them

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capitalized on Bill's
experience in compiler

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writing by founding
Tartan Laboratories,

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which sold optimizing
microcode compilers to Intel,

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for example.

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They both left CMU to do this.

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She stayed with this
effort for six years

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and then undertook another
major career shift.

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She accepted a
position as chairman

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of the University of Virginia
computer science department,

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which she saw as being another
wonderful entrepreneurial

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experience.

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In the meantime, Bill went
to the National Science

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Foundation.

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She ran the department
for five years,

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saying that she was--
recalling that she

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was happy as a clam doing that.

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Along the way, she began to
get her toe into government

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by serving on the Air Force
scientific advisory board.

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She said that this experience
was a tremendous education,

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more valuable than a PhD.

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She saw some very powerful
problem solvers working

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with very difficult problems.

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She said it was
an apprenticeship

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in a much broader
realm of problems

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than she had encountered before.

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She later served on the
Defense Science Board

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as an expansion of
these activities.

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Then soon after
Clinton was elected,

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she received a call from our
own John Deutch asking her

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if she wanted to be director
of defense, research,

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and engineering.

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She had had contact
with John before.

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As provost, he had asked her to
serve on the board of Lincoln

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Laboratories and they had served
on the Defense Science Board

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together.

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She felt that this was a
request she couldn't refuse

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and took leave from the
University of Virginia

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to go to Washington, where
she's done an outstanding job

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and has received the DOD
award for distinguished

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public service.

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Her job there involves
making policy decisions

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that affect how DOD invests
in science and technology.

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She's won numerous other awards
as a member of the National

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Academy of Engineering.

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As you know, we like
to invite our speakers

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to sum up their life experiences
with an aphorism as guidance

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to our young students.

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She's offered two of them.

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One of them is from her dad.

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He said, just do
something, something

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you like better than fishing.

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And her own is, life is more
fun if you live multiple lives.

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And [? it's cool that ?]
she's done that.

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So I'm pleased to
welcome Anita Jones.

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[APPLAUSE]

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What I'd like to
talk to you about

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is the federal funding of
science and technology,

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an interesting area to
study in its own right.

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What I'd like to--

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I'm going to use a lot
of slides which will

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have a lot of graphics on them.

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What I hope you'll
walk away with is

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a gestalt of what the major--

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who the major players are in
terms of funding organizations,

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some of the relative sizes of
things and what they invest

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in-- and maybe a
little bit of why--

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and some trends about
what's happening.

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As ought to be known
best in Boston,

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the Feds fund basic research,
and that happens essentially

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after World War II when Vannevar
Bush convinced Roosevelt

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at the time that because
of the contributions made,

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particularly here
at the Rad Lab,

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the federal government should
invest in long-term research.

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He recommended in
a brochure, a book

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called The Endless
Frontier, that there

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ought to be one agency,
like the National Science

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Foundation, that did
not exist at that time,

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because you can't trust
the mission agencies,

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places like DOD
and other agencies,

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because they'll be
too mission oriented.

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And in fact, his
model was partly

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followed in that the National
Science Foundation was created,

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but partly not followed.

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And you'll see that reflected
in the budget charts

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that I'm going to show you.

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Who among the feds funds what?

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Again, only the bottom
lines, not the details,

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really matter here.

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Many people will tell you
that the federal R&D, research

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and development
budget, is $76 billion

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and it changes only slowly,
so about $70 billion.

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It's half DOD.

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The other half is primarily
spread among Health and Human

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Services, NASA, DOE, and NSF.

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But in fact, you should
just proceed to forget that,

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because that's
really not the way I

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would argue to think about it.

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What's important from
the way that we all

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think about it is a piece of
that that's called the Science

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and Technology program--

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basic research,
applied research,

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and the development
of technology.

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If you think about--

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so for the rest of
the talk, I'm going

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to use R&D to mean both
short term and long term.

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So in commercial speak,
the design and development

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of a new car would be R&D. The
building of a microelectronics

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fabrication plant would be R&D--

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very short-term things.

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Science and technology
is a piece of R&D,

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but it is the
longer-term investment.

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And I'll break
that down further.

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If you just look at that,
it's roughly half of the 70.

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For '98, it's about $44 billion.

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And I'm only talking about
the federal investment.

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And the picture looks
a bit different.

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Health and Human Services,
which invests primarily

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in the life sciences
and medicine,

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is the largest by quite a bit.

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And again, you have
the same players--

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DOD, NASA, DOE, and NSF.

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If you say, well, I don't
care about the late stage

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and I want to bring
it down further,

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the 44 becomes about 28.

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And HHS is getting larger.

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But NSF is getting larger in
their percentage, as well.

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And if you look
at basic research,

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life sciences and medicine
is where about 45%

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of the federal investment in
basic research, the longest

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term work, is invested.

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And the other players--

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NASA, DOE, NSF, and DOD--

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are where you go if you're
interested in physical sciences

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and engineering investment.

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And there are some
others, like agriculture.

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But I'm not going
to talk about those.

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And so at this point,
DOD is about 8%.

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How has it changed?

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It's gone down.

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Here I'm looking at, again,
science and technology.

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So it's basic research,
applied research,

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and technology development.

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That, by the way, is what
I oversee in Defense.

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And that's what I think is
the most important number

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to track from the point
of view of creating

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new ideas and the country
capitalizing on them

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for national security,
for the citizens,

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or for the health of the
science and the universities.

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[INAUDIBLE]

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These are constant dollars,
which means buying power,

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and the answer is yes.

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254
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Where did the 5% go down?

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Well, it's quite different
in the different agencies.

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DOD, I regret to
tell you, is the one

257
00:12:28,090 --> 00:12:29,410
that has gone down the most.

258
00:12:29,410 --> 00:12:32,460
And it's 18%.

259
00:12:32,460 --> 00:12:35,020
HHS is the one that
has gone up the most.

260
00:12:35,020 --> 00:12:36,090
And that's 12%.

261
00:12:36,090 --> 00:12:39,990
The only other one to
go up it is NSF at 5%.

262
00:12:39,990 --> 00:12:42,620


263
00:12:42,620 --> 00:12:46,850
So the agencies are treated
somewhat differently

264
00:12:46,850 --> 00:12:47,960
across the years.

265
00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:52,650
And that's a thing
to pay attention to.

266
00:12:52,650 --> 00:12:55,110
What's happened across
the years in terms

267
00:12:55,110 --> 00:12:57,120
of the budget building up?

268
00:12:57,120 --> 00:12:58,985
First of all started very small.

269
00:12:58,985 --> 00:13:01,110
And these are what are
called [? venure ?] dollars,

270
00:13:01,110 --> 00:13:02,910
whatever the budget number is.

271
00:13:02,910 --> 00:13:08,055
And on this slide, inflation
is not taken into account.

272
00:13:08,055 --> 00:13:13,050


273
00:13:13,050 --> 00:13:16,640
The bottom coloration
in blue is DOD.

274
00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:18,480
And you can see that
it's grown over time.

275
00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:22,160
And I'll show you some
more DOD charts later.

276
00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:25,640
The area that's grown the most
is Health and Human Services.

277
00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:29,690
And so the federal
investment in life sciences,

278
00:13:29,690 --> 00:13:31,580
it can't be found back here.

279
00:13:31,580 --> 00:13:34,460
And then it grows
quite dramatically.

280
00:13:34,460 --> 00:13:38,180
As you see, NASA has grown
fairly dramatically, especially

281
00:13:38,180 --> 00:13:40,250
in later years.

282
00:13:40,250 --> 00:13:41,600
DOE has gone up.

283
00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:43,820
NSF has gone up, as
well as the others.

284
00:13:43,820 --> 00:13:48,550
So there's been growth
across the board, essentially

285
00:13:48,550 --> 00:13:51,260
the largest amount being
in health sciences,

286
00:13:51,260 --> 00:13:53,380
but very healthy growth
in some other areas.

287
00:13:53,380 --> 00:13:57,580


288
00:13:57,580 --> 00:14:02,105
If not the Feds, who else?

289
00:14:02,105 --> 00:14:05,150
And the who else is industry.

290
00:14:05,150 --> 00:14:08,270
And let me make what I think
is a really very important

291
00:14:08,270 --> 00:14:10,250
comparison.

292
00:14:10,250 --> 00:14:12,800
Let me go back and
do two definitions.

293
00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:15,020
R&D, or Research
and Development,

294
00:14:15,020 --> 00:14:17,630
is both long term
and the short term.

295
00:14:17,630 --> 00:14:21,470
So the design a new car,
build a fabrication plant.

296
00:14:21,470 --> 00:14:25,940
And this is the $70,
$75 billion that

297
00:14:25,940 --> 00:14:27,920
the federal government puts in.

298
00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:31,700
So there are F-22s and new
attack submarines and things

299
00:14:31,700 --> 00:14:33,110
like that in here.

300
00:14:33,110 --> 00:14:39,200
Industry is much larger
than the federal investment

301
00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,550
by about a factor of 2.

302
00:14:42,550 --> 00:14:46,840
But if you ask of that
and if you look at--

303
00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:49,810
going to occasionally
change definitions on you.

304
00:14:49,810 --> 00:14:51,350
This is technology based.

305
00:14:51,350 --> 00:14:54,760
This is the DOD term for--

306
00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:56,890
sorry I didn't
change that for you--

307
00:14:56,890 --> 00:15:01,210
basic and applied research,
the way NSF defines it,

308
00:15:01,210 --> 00:15:04,870
the things that NSF funds
and not later technology

309
00:15:04,870 --> 00:15:05,810
development.

310
00:15:05,810 --> 00:15:09,280
So if you look at basic
and applied research,

311
00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:11,650
here you have the
main players again.

312
00:15:11,650 --> 00:15:15,780
DOD is $4 billion out of that.

313
00:15:15,780 --> 00:15:18,160
And industry is just
slightly larger.

314
00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:22,880
And so if you look at the
investment in the long term,

315
00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:26,360
industry puts almost
nothing in there.

316
00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:31,940
And there are a lot of rules
or a lot of reasons for that.

317
00:15:31,940 --> 00:15:36,530
For example, the
publicly traded stocks,

318
00:15:36,530 --> 00:15:42,590
the 100% of the stock valuation
of publicly traded companies,

319
00:15:42,590 --> 00:15:45,470
changes the equivalent of--
not each of the shares,

320
00:15:45,470 --> 00:15:46,760
but the equivalent of--

321
00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:50,460
changes hands every
12 to 24 months.

322
00:15:50,460 --> 00:15:54,890
Therefore, the board of
directors has short-term owners

323
00:15:54,890 --> 00:15:59,220
and makes short-term
investment decisions.

324
00:15:59,220 --> 00:16:01,230
In these kind of
investment decisions,

325
00:16:01,230 --> 00:16:04,620
industry doesn't know whether
there's going to be a benefit,

326
00:16:04,620 --> 00:16:07,685
or if there is, that they will
be able to get the payoff.

327
00:16:07,685 --> 00:16:09,060
So there are lots
of good reasons

328
00:16:09,060 --> 00:16:12,330
why industry invests
a lot in R&D,

329
00:16:12,330 --> 00:16:16,950
but only a very small
piece of that is in S&T,

330
00:16:16,950 --> 00:16:19,060
the longer term investment.

331
00:16:19,060 --> 00:16:21,640


332
00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:24,970
Another answer to the
"who else does it,"

333
00:16:24,970 --> 00:16:26,070
which is very troublesome.

334
00:16:26,070 --> 00:16:31,200
These are a set of charts came
out of a Wall Street Journal

335
00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:32,160
article.

336
00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:36,060
And they basically show
substantive reduction

337
00:16:36,060 --> 00:16:40,140
in research labs in some
of the large companies

338
00:16:40,140 --> 00:16:44,160
in this country that had--

339
00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:46,530
and in some cases still have--

340
00:16:46,530 --> 00:16:48,720
major research labs.

341
00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:50,070
But there are large drops.

342
00:16:50,070 --> 00:16:55,520


343
00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:56,940
I have a favorite slide.

344
00:16:56,940 --> 00:16:58,370
And so I want to use it here.

345
00:16:58,370 --> 00:17:02,230


346
00:17:02,230 --> 00:17:05,349
Long-term investments
have very high payoff

347
00:17:05,349 --> 00:17:08,980
and there are lots of
studies that will actually

348
00:17:08,980 --> 00:17:11,980
quantify that for you.

349
00:17:11,980 --> 00:17:13,660
But it is clearly a fact.

350
00:17:13,660 --> 00:17:15,849
And one of the best
ways I know to do it

351
00:17:15,849 --> 00:17:21,400
is to borrow a simplified
slide from Fred Brooks and Ivan

352
00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:23,890
Sutherland, who did
a study or chaired

353
00:17:23,890 --> 00:17:27,940
a study that the National
Academy complex did where they

354
00:17:27,940 --> 00:17:32,530
looked at information technology
and took some breakthrough

355
00:17:32,530 --> 00:17:35,170
ideas and looked--

356
00:17:35,170 --> 00:17:39,850
breakthrough ideas that resulted
in a billion dollar business.

357
00:17:39,850 --> 00:17:42,820
So what's most important is
to look to the right side

358
00:17:42,820 --> 00:17:44,470
where these charts turn blue.

359
00:17:44,470 --> 00:17:46,990
It shows-- the
chart shows where--

360
00:17:46,990 --> 00:17:49,150
not how much, but
the time period over

361
00:17:49,150 --> 00:17:52,300
which the government invested,
the time period over which

362
00:17:52,300 --> 00:17:56,110
industry was doing R&D, maybe
long term, maybe short term,

363
00:17:56,110 --> 00:17:58,000
and the time period
over which you

364
00:17:58,000 --> 00:17:59,860
had a billion dollar business.

365
00:17:59,860 --> 00:18:03,790
And we start with time
sharing, which really came out

366
00:18:03,790 --> 00:18:09,190
of CTSS and MIT.

367
00:18:09,190 --> 00:18:12,950
And so on the top line, you see
that the government, in fact--

368
00:18:12,950 --> 00:18:16,750
it was, I think, mostly
DOD investing in MIT where

369
00:18:16,750 --> 00:18:19,210
time sharing was invented.

370
00:18:19,210 --> 00:18:22,110
There was industrial
participation in and around it.

371
00:18:22,110 --> 00:18:24,610
And there was other work going
on at other universities that

372
00:18:24,610 --> 00:18:26,500
likely influenced that.

373
00:18:26,500 --> 00:18:33,260
And long about '80, you have
a billion dollar business.

374
00:18:33,260 --> 00:18:36,410
The bottom line of this
slide is these developments

375
00:18:36,410 --> 00:18:40,350
all took decades.

376
00:18:40,350 --> 00:18:42,980
They were really important
because they generated

377
00:18:42,980 --> 00:18:45,530
a billion dollar business.

378
00:18:45,530 --> 00:18:49,460
They were a complex
interaction of government

379
00:18:49,460 --> 00:18:52,310
and industry-funded work--

380
00:18:52,310 --> 00:18:55,790
not just at one University,
not just in one company.

381
00:18:55,790 --> 00:19:00,320
And the investment could
have started in industry

382
00:19:00,320 --> 00:19:02,030
or it could have
started in government.

383
00:19:02,030 --> 00:19:05,840
Typically, one thinks it started
with a government investment.

384
00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:08,900
But RIS, the Reduced
Instruction Set architecture,

385
00:19:08,900 --> 00:19:10,670
is a good
counterexample to that.

386
00:19:10,670 --> 00:19:14,780
It started with IBM
and the 801 project.

387
00:19:14,780 --> 00:19:17,540
They, for their own
marketing reasons,

388
00:19:17,540 --> 00:19:21,640
stopped the 801 project, did
not take that to product.

389
00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:23,140
But boy, it looked
like a good idea.

390
00:19:23,140 --> 00:19:25,340
So some universities
picked up on that.

391
00:19:25,340 --> 00:19:28,670
And it, indeed, is a--

392
00:19:28,670 --> 00:19:31,070
many processors we
have today, especially

393
00:19:31,070 --> 00:19:34,790
commodity processors, are risk
instruction set processors.

394
00:19:34,790 --> 00:19:39,740
I added the bottom line because
MEMS devices either will be

395
00:19:39,740 --> 00:19:43,910
or will catalyze a
million dollar business,

396
00:19:43,910 --> 00:19:47,160
I am absolutely positive.

397
00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:49,820
So I've talked a little
bit about the contrast

398
00:19:49,820 --> 00:19:53,930
between industrial investment
in basic and applied research

399
00:19:53,930 --> 00:19:55,620
and the federal government.

400
00:19:55,620 --> 00:19:59,360
So let me emphasize the
what is invested in.

401
00:19:59,360 --> 00:20:01,920


402
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:05,010
And one of the things that I
think it is very useful to know

403
00:20:05,010 --> 00:20:07,128
is that the different agencies--

404
00:20:07,128 --> 00:20:09,420
now I'm going to focus only
on the federal government--

405
00:20:09,420 --> 00:20:12,510
the different agencies
invest in different things.

406
00:20:12,510 --> 00:20:15,660
They invest based on
what their mission is.

407
00:20:15,660 --> 00:20:17,700
Every agency has a mission--

408
00:20:17,700 --> 00:20:19,500
Department of Defense,
Department of Energy

409
00:20:19,500 --> 00:20:22,850
are agencies in this context.

410
00:20:22,850 --> 00:20:27,350
A number of them invest in
basic physics or chemistry,

411
00:20:27,350 --> 00:20:33,170
or in this case,
mathematics in an even way.

412
00:20:33,170 --> 00:20:36,110
But when you get to the science
and the engineering that

413
00:20:36,110 --> 00:20:38,450
underlies a mission,
you will find

414
00:20:38,450 --> 00:20:42,320
that a particular
agency dominates

415
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,600
the federal investment.

416
00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:46,200
And it's really mission driven.

417
00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:50,460
So if you look at
aeronautics, astronautics,

418
00:20:50,460 --> 00:20:54,980
DOD has a couple hundred
million dollar investment.

419
00:20:54,980 --> 00:20:56,960
But it's dwarfed
by what NASA does.

420
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,530


421
00:20:59,530 --> 00:21:03,227
And DOE doesn't care.

422
00:21:03,227 --> 00:21:04,560
It's not close to their mission.

423
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:06,660
Why should they?

424
00:21:06,660 --> 00:21:11,790
I picked three things where
DOD in the red on the left bar

425
00:21:11,790 --> 00:21:17,520
is the major federal
investor in an area.

426
00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:20,820
These happen to be
three areas that

427
00:21:20,820 --> 00:21:25,590
are close to the mission of
the Department of Defense.

428
00:21:25,590 --> 00:21:29,040
And that is the rationale
for making that investment.

429
00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:30,840
Again, the most
important point here

430
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:38,280
is the agencies invest at
large differential levels.

431
00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:42,810


432
00:21:42,810 --> 00:21:44,268
I want to talk now about DOD.

433
00:21:44,268 --> 00:21:45,810
That's the one I
know the most about.

434
00:21:45,810 --> 00:21:52,240


435
00:21:52,240 --> 00:21:54,490
I want to show you
some historic trends

436
00:21:54,490 --> 00:21:56,470
for the Department of Defense.

437
00:21:56,470 --> 00:22:02,440
It's important to understand
that this is your agency that

438
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:09,490
has a reduced budget by about
40% across the last decade.

439
00:22:09,490 --> 00:22:11,170
That's a very large number.

440
00:22:11,170 --> 00:22:14,460
It's a very large
percentage, too.

441
00:22:14,460 --> 00:22:19,260
What's being graphed
here is investment

442
00:22:19,260 --> 00:22:24,730
across from '78 to '98
in three different areas.

443
00:22:24,730 --> 00:22:26,550
The bottom line is
what I most talk--

444
00:22:26,550 --> 00:22:29,320
for the most of the
time talking about.

445
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:32,730
And that's the science
and technology budget.

446
00:22:32,730 --> 00:22:35,100
And it's very small
compared to other things.

447
00:22:35,100 --> 00:22:38,190
It's only a couple of percent.

448
00:22:38,190 --> 00:22:40,790
This is the development
budget, where

449
00:22:40,790 --> 00:22:42,920
you're developing new systems--

450
00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:45,950
again, like the Joint Strike
Fighter or the new attack

451
00:22:45,950 --> 00:22:47,450
submarine.

452
00:22:47,450 --> 00:22:50,100
And this is the budget
for buying things.

453
00:22:50,100 --> 00:22:53,150
And so what you
see charted here is

454
00:22:53,150 --> 00:22:56,180
a slight reduction
in development,

455
00:22:56,180 --> 00:23:01,070
but not a lot,
basically sustained

456
00:23:01,070 --> 00:23:03,110
when you're looking at
this granularity, science

457
00:23:03,110 --> 00:23:06,770
and technology investment,
and a dramatic reduction

458
00:23:06,770 --> 00:23:08,060
in what's bought.

459
00:23:08,060 --> 00:23:10,460
And that was a
management decision

460
00:23:10,460 --> 00:23:16,200
to particularly take the
reduction in that way.

461
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:19,280
And that's been managed by
the secretary and the deputy.

462
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,325
And those are the senior
leadership decisions.

463
00:23:21,325 --> 00:23:23,450
Happen to believe it's a
good decision, by the way.

464
00:23:23,450 --> 00:23:26,480


465
00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:31,195
An important thing is that
defense industry gets--

466
00:23:31,195 --> 00:23:32,570
the easiest way
to think about it

467
00:23:32,570 --> 00:23:39,800
is a percentage of this budget
back as internal R&D funds,

468
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:42,110
much of which they use in
short term, but some of which

469
00:23:42,110 --> 00:23:43,820
they use in long term.

470
00:23:43,820 --> 00:23:48,020
And that is down 52%
with the downturn

471
00:23:48,020 --> 00:23:49,990
in the procurement budget
or the buying budget.

472
00:23:49,990 --> 00:23:58,950


473
00:23:58,950 --> 00:24:01,910
Inside the science
and technology bucket,

474
00:24:01,910 --> 00:24:06,780
it has been, in Clinton's
first term, the priority

475
00:24:06,780 --> 00:24:11,280
to when cuts were
made to protect

476
00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:15,030
preferentially basic research.

477
00:24:15,030 --> 00:24:19,570
And this is the constant year
dollars, therefore buying

478
00:24:19,570 --> 00:24:20,070
power.

479
00:24:20,070 --> 00:24:25,380
It includes inflation and
shows you the three pieces

480
00:24:25,380 --> 00:24:30,060
of that basic applied research
and advanced technology

481
00:24:30,060 --> 00:24:31,320
development.

482
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:36,870
And you see in the '98 budget
that is, quote, "on the Hill"

483
00:24:36,870 --> 00:24:41,580
in the president's budget,
we have taken it back up.

484
00:24:41,580 --> 00:24:47,460
It's up by 5%, which is
a sporty thing to do,

485
00:24:47,460 --> 00:24:50,580
because Congress does not
like to see [? ramps. ?]

486
00:24:50,580 --> 00:24:55,950
What we did was we actually
restored a '97 11th hour

487
00:24:55,950 --> 00:25:02,410
cut in the basic research
budget plus added in inflation

488
00:25:02,410 --> 00:25:06,145
and preferentially took
the largest cut out.

489
00:25:06,145 --> 00:25:10,090
If you see that going
up, this is the basic--

490
00:25:10,090 --> 00:25:13,750
tech base, remember, is the
basic plus applied research

491
00:25:13,750 --> 00:25:15,040
that is slightly down.

492
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:19,480
And so the largest hit is
in the advanced development,

493
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:20,710
the prototyping budget.

494
00:25:20,710 --> 00:25:24,650
And that was--
after many debates,

495
00:25:24,650 --> 00:25:27,370
I can tell you that was
the management decision.

496
00:25:27,370 --> 00:25:33,330


497
00:25:33,330 --> 00:25:36,870
It is of great concern to
me that the technology base

498
00:25:36,870 --> 00:25:43,680
budget, the basic and applied
research budget, DOD-wide

499
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:45,970
is at an 18 year low.

500
00:25:45,970 --> 00:25:49,290
It's about a couple hundred
million dollars off the 20 year

501
00:25:49,290 --> 00:25:52,770
average back from today.

502
00:25:52,770 --> 00:25:58,820
But even more concern
is that in the services,

503
00:25:58,820 --> 00:26:00,710
it's at a 35-year low.

504
00:26:00,710 --> 00:26:04,310
And I consider this a
very serious situation.

505
00:26:04,310 --> 00:26:06,710
I have written to
the chiefs of service

506
00:26:06,710 --> 00:26:11,060
and the secretaries of
the services about this.

507
00:26:11,060 --> 00:26:18,040
And in my belief, it is time
to put some of that back.

508
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:23,300


509
00:26:23,300 --> 00:26:24,050
I beg your pardon?

510
00:26:24,050 --> 00:26:27,290
Could you clarify what
services technology base is?

511
00:26:27,290 --> 00:26:28,000
Let's see.

512
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:35,230
Technology base is basic
plus applied research,

513
00:26:35,230 --> 00:26:38,840
the kinds of things
that NSF funds.

514
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:40,570
I'll show you a slide later.

515
00:26:40,570 --> 00:26:43,300
The Department of
Defense budget is for--

516
00:26:43,300 --> 00:26:45,820
say, basic research--
is not in one pot.

517
00:26:45,820 --> 00:26:47,440
It's in each of the services.

518
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:48,340
It's in DARPA.

519
00:26:48,340 --> 00:26:50,890
And it's in some other agencies,
like the ballistic missile

520
00:26:50,890 --> 00:26:53,000
defense organization.

521
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:54,025
And so the last--

522
00:26:54,025 --> 00:26:59,720


523
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:03,530
this slide tells you that
if you look at all of DoD,

524
00:27:03,530 --> 00:27:09,780
it's down less than if
you look at the services.

525
00:27:09,780 --> 00:27:13,680
And the message is the services
are cutting more than the rest

526
00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:14,497
of us.

527
00:27:14,497 --> 00:27:17,280
The question is,
what's the [INAUDIBLE]??

528
00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:19,920
The Army, and the Navy,
and the Air Force.

529
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:21,930
Excuse me.

530
00:27:21,930 --> 00:27:24,500
[? Doug, ?] thank you
for that clarification.

531
00:27:24,500 --> 00:27:27,750
Some people like the
Army Research Lab.

532
00:27:27,750 --> 00:27:29,640
If you're looking
at basic research,

533
00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:32,880
Army Research Lab had-- no.

534
00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:36,630
The Army Research Lab plus
the Army Research Office

535
00:27:36,630 --> 00:27:38,580
is where that money is.

536
00:27:38,580 --> 00:27:40,185
The basic research
funds are expended.

537
00:27:40,185 --> 00:27:45,600


538
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:47,820
What does DOD fund?

539
00:27:47,820 --> 00:27:50,070
Well, let me give
you some background.

540
00:27:50,070 --> 00:27:54,750
It really is a change time
for national security.

541
00:27:54,750 --> 00:27:59,310
And that has affected--
continues to affect--

542
00:27:59,310 --> 00:28:03,390
what the Department
is investing in.

543
00:28:03,390 --> 00:28:09,190
Although the threat of
a large war of attrition

544
00:28:09,190 --> 00:28:14,710
is gone at this point, from
my point of view, overseeing

545
00:28:14,710 --> 00:28:17,620
the science and
technology program,

546
00:28:17,620 --> 00:28:20,470
once we started to focus
on regional conflicts,

547
00:28:20,470 --> 00:28:24,220
the technology
competition just went up,

548
00:28:24,220 --> 00:28:29,020
because the adversaries that
our forces might face now

549
00:28:29,020 --> 00:28:30,970
buy out of the
international arms market.

550
00:28:30,970 --> 00:28:34,210
And so they have access
to the best missiles

551
00:28:34,210 --> 00:28:38,140
that the French make, the best
mines that the Italians make,

552
00:28:38,140 --> 00:28:42,190
the best fighter craft that
you can buy in Western Europe.

553
00:28:42,190 --> 00:28:43,900
The Soviets didn't have that.

554
00:28:43,900 --> 00:28:47,030
The Soviets bought from
themselves, by and large.

555
00:28:47,030 --> 00:28:51,190
And so the technology
competition just heated up.

556
00:28:51,190 --> 00:28:53,500
Besides the former
Soviet Union, now we're

557
00:28:53,500 --> 00:28:59,260
concerned about facing the
regional countries that

558
00:28:59,260 --> 00:29:02,800
buy wherever the best value is.

559
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:06,743
And that often is where
the best technology is.

560
00:29:06,743 --> 00:29:09,160
And there's a broader mission--
and I'll come back to that

561
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:10,330
in a moment--

562
00:29:10,330 --> 00:29:14,290
of peacekeeping and
countering the proliferation

563
00:29:14,290 --> 00:29:17,920
of biological, chemical,
and nuclear weapons.

564
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,350
And by the way, we're
going to a global economy,

565
00:29:20,350 --> 00:29:21,820
and that affects us.

566
00:29:21,820 --> 00:29:23,320
DOD's budget is down.

567
00:29:23,320 --> 00:29:25,090
And we're buying a lot less.

568
00:29:25,090 --> 00:29:28,300
And so we're much more
concerned with affordability,

569
00:29:28,300 --> 00:29:30,880
either the cost at the
time you buy it or the cost

570
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:34,530
to own and operate.

571
00:29:34,530 --> 00:29:40,720
Want to amplify the
broader missions,

572
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:44,470
because that really is
causing some changes

573
00:29:44,470 --> 00:29:45,880
in what's invested in.

574
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:48,580
And these are missions
that-- they're not new

575
00:29:48,580 --> 00:29:51,640
so much as they are
more emphasized.

576
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:55,330


577
00:29:55,330 --> 00:30:00,610
So evacuation of embassy
civilian personnel out

578
00:30:00,610 --> 00:30:08,800
of Albania assuring minimal
or no casualties non-lethal

579
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:09,300
weapons--

580
00:30:09,300 --> 00:30:12,440


581
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:16,310
we have military leadership
asking for non-lethal weapons--

582
00:30:16,310 --> 00:30:17,960
and countering terrorism.

583
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:24,830
Although we certainly are
concerned with terrorism

584
00:30:24,830 --> 00:30:27,140
of military forces--

585
00:30:27,140 --> 00:30:29,810
the bombing of Khobar Towers.

586
00:30:29,810 --> 00:30:33,050
If there were serious
incidents in the United States,

587
00:30:33,050 --> 00:30:34,550
of course, the
Department of Justice

588
00:30:34,550 --> 00:30:36,360
has primary responsibility.

589
00:30:36,360 --> 00:30:41,840
But if it gets
too large or too--

590
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:44,240
they need some backup, who
are they going to call?

591
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:46,340
And so DOD ought to be ready.

592
00:30:46,340 --> 00:30:49,790


593
00:30:49,790 --> 00:30:51,830
I will unabashedly
tell you that I

594
00:30:51,830 --> 00:30:54,800
believe the science and
technology program in Defense

595
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:56,570
is one of the crown
jewels of the country.

596
00:30:56,570 --> 00:30:59,240
And I'm talking about the
long-term investment, not

597
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:01,880
the military
hardware development.

598
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:03,635
And here are some examples.

599
00:31:03,635 --> 00:31:06,580


600
00:31:06,580 --> 00:31:09,940
And in defending the science
and technology budget,

601
00:31:09,940 --> 00:31:13,000
this is the kind of
thing that I turn to.

602
00:31:13,000 --> 00:31:17,800
Major military capability came
out of the DOD investment, not

603
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:19,660
the industrial
investment, and not

604
00:31:19,660 --> 00:31:21,400
necessarily-- although
it's sometimes

605
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:25,780
complemented by the investment
of the rest of the agencies.

606
00:31:25,780 --> 00:31:31,270
These are notable contributions
to protecting and equipping

607
00:31:31,270 --> 00:31:32,740
the--

608
00:31:32,740 --> 00:31:33,295
our forces.

609
00:31:33,295 --> 00:31:36,750


610
00:31:36,750 --> 00:31:42,890
And all those examples I give
you had a history whereby

611
00:31:42,890 --> 00:31:44,810
you likely had a
decade of research

612
00:31:44,810 --> 00:31:47,060
with a lot of the work being
done in the universities,

613
00:31:47,060 --> 00:31:50,090
maybe the key ideas coming
from the universities,

614
00:31:50,090 --> 00:31:53,750
followed by applied research
and technology development

615
00:31:53,750 --> 00:31:57,740
as the technology matured
another decade, and then

616
00:31:57,740 --> 00:32:00,950
another decade of actually
developing a system,

617
00:32:00,950 --> 00:32:05,030
buying a system, long out of the
science and technology budget.

618
00:32:05,030 --> 00:32:07,220
These things take decades.

619
00:32:07,220 --> 00:32:09,560
It is absolutely
crucial that the nation

620
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:14,390
have a stable investment
in science and technology.

621
00:32:14,390 --> 00:32:16,860
And that is of great concern.

622
00:32:16,860 --> 00:32:19,550
As you see, things have
gotten much more jagged

623
00:32:19,550 --> 00:32:23,090
in these later years.

624
00:32:23,090 --> 00:32:25,660
I'm talking about what
defense invests in.

625
00:32:25,660 --> 00:32:28,340


626
00:32:28,340 --> 00:32:31,730
This is the basic
research budget.

627
00:32:31,730 --> 00:32:34,400
And the points to
be made here is

628
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:38,900
that the DOD investment in
basic research is broad.

629
00:32:38,900 --> 00:32:45,380
One of our objectives is not to
be technologically surprised.

630
00:32:45,380 --> 00:32:47,030
It ought to be the
case that if we

631
00:32:47,030 --> 00:32:50,270
hear about an
experiment or an idea,

632
00:32:50,270 --> 00:32:52,610
it is a very short
period of time

633
00:32:52,610 --> 00:32:57,600
before some laboratory can try
that out and see if it works.

634
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:00,110
And so there is an
infrastructure implication

635
00:33:00,110 --> 00:33:01,020
to that.

636
00:33:01,020 --> 00:33:03,680
You'll see basic chemistry
and physics here.

637
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:07,940
You'll see some areas that map
closely to serve its interest--

638
00:33:07,940 --> 00:33:10,610
Ocean Sciences, for example.

639
00:33:10,610 --> 00:33:12,920
And you see the
different balance

640
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,450
of investment comparative.

641
00:33:15,450 --> 00:33:18,410
So there are some things
that we put very little--

642
00:33:18,410 --> 00:33:19,625
this is only basic research.

643
00:33:19,625 --> 00:33:22,980


644
00:33:22,980 --> 00:33:25,650
So there is much more
in manufacturing,

645
00:33:25,650 --> 00:33:27,480
but it's not basic research.

646
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:33,030
And the largest is electronics,
John will be glad to know.

647
00:33:33,030 --> 00:33:36,490
If you look at applied research
and technology development,

648
00:33:36,490 --> 00:33:38,280
the other portion,
the larger portion

649
00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:41,020
of the DOD science and
technology program,

650
00:33:41,020 --> 00:33:42,150
here's the same chart.

651
00:33:42,150 --> 00:33:47,400
You're talking about over
$6 billion of investment.

652
00:33:47,400 --> 00:33:51,790
The characteristics are,
it is again differential.

653
00:33:51,790 --> 00:33:54,850
Actually, if you
look down that list

654
00:33:54,850 --> 00:33:57,460
and look at information
technologies,

655
00:33:57,460 --> 00:34:00,110
you'll find that
that's the largest--

656
00:34:00,110 --> 00:34:02,110
it's made up of
several pieces here--

657
00:34:02,110 --> 00:34:07,510
electronic devices, software,
human system interfaces,

658
00:34:07,510 --> 00:34:08,710
computers.

659
00:34:08,710 --> 00:34:12,040
If you add that up, that
really is the largest single

660
00:34:12,040 --> 00:34:13,000
broad area.

661
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:16,300


662
00:34:16,300 --> 00:34:18,510
Again, it's comprehensive.

663
00:34:18,510 --> 00:34:20,500
And there's a
differential investment.

664
00:34:20,500 --> 00:34:23,530
This is very small, in
clothing, textile, and food,

665
00:34:23,530 --> 00:34:26,440
and it's much larger in
sensors and electronic devices.

666
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:29,600


667
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:31,280
I showed you the compare--

668
00:34:31,280 --> 00:34:36,440
some slides that compared what
the different agencies invested

669
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:39,739
in and showed you, for
example, that NASA is,

670
00:34:39,739 --> 00:34:44,340
by far, the largest investor
in aeronautics, astronautics.

671
00:34:44,340 --> 00:34:45,500
Let me look now--

672
00:34:45,500 --> 00:34:48,050
we're talking DOD only here.

673
00:34:48,050 --> 00:34:49,820
There are some critical
areas, certainly

674
00:34:49,820 --> 00:34:52,886
critical to national security.

675
00:34:52,886 --> 00:34:58,280
DOD technology base-- basic
plus applied research,

676
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:00,530
kind of thing NSF invests in.

677
00:35:00,530 --> 00:35:05,000
DOD is 16% of the total
federal investment

678
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:08,290
in that kind of activity.

679
00:35:08,290 --> 00:35:11,120
But if you look at
some particular areas,

680
00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:15,090
like electrical
engineering, DOD makes

681
00:35:15,090 --> 00:35:19,683
75% of whole investment made
by the federal government.

682
00:35:19,683 --> 00:35:23,140


683
00:35:23,140 --> 00:35:27,430
A particularly important
one is engineering research.

684
00:35:27,430 --> 00:35:33,880
This is about a third of all the
funds across all the agencies,

685
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:37,450
all of whom depend on
engineering, I would argue,

686
00:35:37,450 --> 00:35:41,770
invested in engineering
research, the longer term kind

687
00:35:41,770 --> 00:35:42,550
of things.

688
00:35:42,550 --> 00:35:46,415
And this comes from an agency
that's only 16% of the budget.

689
00:35:46,415 --> 00:35:48,290
If you look at the same
things and say, well,

690
00:35:48,290 --> 00:35:50,020
what about universities only?

691
00:35:50,020 --> 00:35:52,776
You see essentially
the same picture--

692
00:35:52,776 --> 00:35:56,590
DOD provides 11% of all
the federal funds that

693
00:35:56,590 --> 00:36:02,100
go to universities
for research, but they

694
00:36:02,100 --> 00:36:07,940
are disproportionate in terms
of some particular areas,

695
00:36:07,940 --> 00:36:11,920
and again, engineering
research across the board--

696
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:18,580
math and computer sciences
and electrical engineering.

697
00:36:18,580 --> 00:36:24,850
The corollary to that
is if this agency ever

698
00:36:24,850 --> 00:36:27,430
had a dramatic change
in either its investment

699
00:36:27,430 --> 00:36:30,880
portfolio or the amount
of funds it had available,

700
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:33,460
you would see--

701
00:36:33,460 --> 00:36:36,580
potentially, anyway--
differential impact

702
00:36:36,580 --> 00:36:37,390
to these areas.

703
00:36:37,390 --> 00:36:40,030


704
00:36:40,030 --> 00:36:42,310
And I said just a
few minutes ago, it

705
00:36:42,310 --> 00:36:45,010
is just crucial that you
have a stable investment.

706
00:36:45,010 --> 00:36:47,050
You all know better
than anybody else

707
00:36:47,050 --> 00:36:53,020
how long it takes to bring a PhD
thesis to fruition, a research

708
00:36:53,020 --> 00:36:54,710
project to fruition.

709
00:36:54,710 --> 00:36:58,943
And so you want stable
funding across that.

710
00:36:58,943 --> 00:36:59,860
Let me see where I am.

711
00:36:59,860 --> 00:37:06,620


712
00:37:06,620 --> 00:37:07,810
What the heck.

713
00:37:07,810 --> 00:37:11,860
Technology priorities--
information technology

714
00:37:11,860 --> 00:37:16,660
is the most important investment
for DOD across the board.

715
00:37:16,660 --> 00:37:18,040
And that's a very large area.

716
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:18,820
That's software.

717
00:37:18,820 --> 00:37:24,440
That's electronics lithography,
optoelectronics, systems,

718
00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:27,350
networks, high
performance computers.

719
00:37:27,350 --> 00:37:30,340
These are some issues that
are particularly important

720
00:37:30,340 --> 00:37:32,068
as-- to DOD--

721
00:37:32,068 --> 00:37:35,410
as it tries to move toward
harnessing information

722
00:37:35,410 --> 00:37:37,160
technology.

723
00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:40,960
And there are a lot of
military advantages,

724
00:37:40,960 --> 00:37:43,240
military applications,
that are advantaged

725
00:37:43,240 --> 00:37:46,600
by information technologies.

726
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:49,250
But there are a bunch of other
technology priorities, as well.

727
00:37:49,250 --> 00:37:54,240
And I'm not going to go into
that in order to speed up.

728
00:37:54,240 --> 00:37:56,550
I said earlier in
response to your question

729
00:37:56,550 --> 00:38:02,230
that the DOD budget
resides in several places.

730
00:38:02,230 --> 00:38:03,880
And again, if you're
looking for money

731
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:07,450
out of the federal
government, out of the DOD,

732
00:38:07,450 --> 00:38:09,460
it is helpful to know that.

733
00:38:09,460 --> 00:38:12,100
And many people don't.

734
00:38:12,100 --> 00:38:15,670
Most assistant professors,
for example, don't.

735
00:38:15,670 --> 00:38:19,510
It's important to
know, I would argue.

736
00:38:19,510 --> 00:38:22,480
Here are the three
military departments.

737
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:29,650
The blue, bottom-striped
portion is basic research.

738
00:38:29,650 --> 00:38:32,500
The middle one is
applied research.

739
00:38:32,500 --> 00:38:36,660
And the top bar is technology
development prototypes--

740
00:38:36,660 --> 00:38:39,640


741
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:44,960
fly a radar, build
an unpiloted vehicle.

742
00:38:44,960 --> 00:38:48,520
And you can see that the
agencies or the components

743
00:38:48,520 --> 00:38:51,070
are quite different.

744
00:38:51,070 --> 00:38:52,900
I bet a bunch of
you think that DARPA

745
00:38:52,900 --> 00:38:56,140
is a big investor
in basic research.

746
00:38:56,140 --> 00:39:01,070
Well, it doesn't have a lot of
basic research colored money.

747
00:39:01,070 --> 00:39:06,680
It's about $82 million
out of $2-plus billion.

748
00:39:06,680 --> 00:39:09,270
There's much more
over in the services.

749
00:39:09,270 --> 00:39:11,610
And by the way, the
Navy is much larger.

750
00:39:11,610 --> 00:39:14,660
And that's for historic
reasons, because the Navy has

751
00:39:14,660 --> 00:39:18,110
NRL, which is a
world-class laboratory,

752
00:39:18,110 --> 00:39:21,410
and because the Office
of Naval Research

753
00:39:21,410 --> 00:39:25,610
was really the
first organization

754
00:39:25,610 --> 00:39:27,920
in the federal
government that did

755
00:39:27,920 --> 00:39:33,050
substantive and sustained
investment, particularly

756
00:39:33,050 --> 00:39:35,990
the universities in
the federal government.

757
00:39:35,990 --> 00:39:38,480
It was Thomas Edison who
suggested to the Navy

758
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:41,970
that they ought to have an ONR.

759
00:39:41,970 --> 00:39:44,570
This is basically my office.

760
00:39:44,570 --> 00:39:46,608
And so you see
that in my office,

761
00:39:46,608 --> 00:39:48,650
there's actually a great
deal more research money

762
00:39:48,650 --> 00:39:50,240
than there is in DARPA.

763
00:39:50,240 --> 00:39:53,600
I mean, DARPA works for
me, but I think of them

764
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:56,400
as two different things.

765
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:59,490
And in fact, this investment
is made differently.

766
00:39:59,490 --> 00:40:03,230
For example, there's a pure
instrumentation program there,

767
00:40:03,230 --> 00:40:07,280
where each year we
have a competition.

768
00:40:07,280 --> 00:40:09,680
The money isn't for
research projects.

769
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:11,960
It's for instrumentation.

770
00:40:11,960 --> 00:40:15,380
We have another project in
here that just funds students.

771
00:40:15,380 --> 00:40:18,680
It adds graduate students
to other DOD projects.

772
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:22,400
And so it's a little different
than what the first four

773
00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:23,750
components invest in.

774
00:40:23,750 --> 00:40:24,658
Yes, ma'am?

775
00:40:24,658 --> 00:40:27,590
[INAUDIBLE]

776
00:40:27,590 --> 00:40:31,370
That's DDR&E. Yes, I'm sorry.

777
00:40:31,370 --> 00:40:35,210
OSD stands for Office
of Secretary of Defense.

778
00:40:35,210 --> 00:40:38,720
But it's really accounts
that are in my office,

779
00:40:38,720 --> 00:40:40,650
because I work in that office.

780
00:40:40,650 --> 00:40:41,960
I'm sorry.

781
00:40:41,960 --> 00:40:43,980
Boy, I don't translate
your questions so well.

782
00:40:43,980 --> 00:40:44,480
Carl?

783
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:47,000
Is it possible some of
the red money in DARPA

784
00:40:47,000 --> 00:40:49,658
really is blue in the skies?

785
00:40:49,658 --> 00:40:53,081
[LAUGHTER]

786
00:40:53,081 --> 00:41:03,850


787
00:41:03,850 --> 00:41:05,575
[INAUDIBLE]

788
00:41:05,575 --> 00:41:08,590


789
00:41:08,590 --> 00:41:11,770
Carl, either that's
true or some of what

790
00:41:11,770 --> 00:41:14,800
the universities are doing
is called applied research.

791
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:18,790


792
00:41:18,790 --> 00:41:22,780
I didn't look, but I bet
you a bunch of LCS money

793
00:41:22,780 --> 00:41:26,170
is colored applied research.

794
00:41:26,170 --> 00:41:31,570
These accounts are very
clear to the green eyeshades.

795
00:41:31,570 --> 00:41:35,770
The boundaries are
somewhat fuzzy.

796
00:41:35,770 --> 00:41:38,980
And there's a little bit
of fuzz going both ways.

797
00:41:38,980 --> 00:41:41,500


798
00:41:41,500 --> 00:41:46,360
In characterizing
the DOD investment,

799
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:50,020
many of you likely
have a model of a--

800
00:41:50,020 --> 00:41:53,200
somebody writes, whether
it's DOD or National Science

801
00:41:53,200 --> 00:41:56,230
Foundation, they write a
broad agency announcement.

802
00:41:56,230 --> 00:41:59,320
They take all
proposals and they fund

803
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:03,310
the best stuff for a while.

804
00:42:03,310 --> 00:42:06,530
And then they start all over.

805
00:42:06,530 --> 00:42:09,950
Well, I think that is
the model that NSF uses--

806
00:42:09,950 --> 00:42:14,660
basically, simplistically--
for much of their investment.

807
00:42:14,660 --> 00:42:16,610
They say something's
important and they just

808
00:42:16,610 --> 00:42:18,470
want to fund the best ideas.

809
00:42:18,470 --> 00:42:21,615
That is not the only model used
by the Department of Defense.

810
00:42:21,615 --> 00:42:22,740
I don't have a lot of time.

811
00:42:22,740 --> 00:42:27,360
But I wanted to show
you one other model.

812
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:34,090
I defend the science and
technology budget based on,

813
00:42:34,090 --> 00:42:36,760
it is going to somehow--

814
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:38,440
if the investment
is successful--

815
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:40,300
advantage the US military.

816
00:42:40,300 --> 00:42:42,700
And there are times
and places where

817
00:42:42,700 --> 00:42:45,678
you want to create something
that wasn't there before.

818
00:42:45,678 --> 00:42:47,470
And I want to give you
one example of that.

819
00:42:47,470 --> 00:42:51,760


820
00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:54,990
There is something called
multichip modules based

821
00:42:54,990 --> 00:42:59,610
on a very sage observation.

822
00:42:59,610 --> 00:43:06,580
Most ships that are
built are immediately

823
00:43:06,580 --> 00:43:07,960
wrapped in an overcoat.

824
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:09,430
They're packaged.

825
00:43:09,430 --> 00:43:12,040
But then you want to use them
in conjunction with other chips.

826
00:43:12,040 --> 00:43:13,370
And so you've got to--

827
00:43:13,370 --> 00:43:16,300
in a simplistic
version of the world--

828
00:43:16,300 --> 00:43:18,970
you've got to
solder them together

829
00:43:18,970 --> 00:43:20,740
to get something that works.

830
00:43:20,740 --> 00:43:22,600
And somebody made the
observation, well,

831
00:43:22,600 --> 00:43:25,240
why do you want to package
them and solder them?

832
00:43:25,240 --> 00:43:27,460
Why don't you just
bond them, glue them

833
00:43:27,460 --> 00:43:32,650
to a communications substrate,
and use them that way?

834
00:43:32,650 --> 00:43:38,080
And in fact, for a
harsh environment,

835
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:45,580
like the electronics that is in
a missile that is going Mach 1

836
00:43:45,580 --> 00:43:52,360
and getting shaken up, solder
joints are a site for failure.

837
00:43:52,360 --> 00:43:56,470
And so multichip modules
look like a very good idea--

838
00:43:56,470 --> 00:43:58,580
looked like a very good idea.

839
00:43:58,580 --> 00:44:02,080
This is a complex chart,
but it's very interesting.

840
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:05,380
What this line depicts
on the right hand

841
00:44:05,380 --> 00:44:10,780
vertical axis is the size of
the merchant multichip modules.

842
00:44:10,780 --> 00:44:15,250
Merchant means one company
builds and sells it to another.

843
00:44:15,250 --> 00:44:17,210
Some companies build
them and use them all.

844
00:44:17,210 --> 00:44:19,830
And so those are
not counted here.

845
00:44:19,830 --> 00:44:23,160
This goes a decade,
from 1990 to 2000.

846
00:44:23,160 --> 00:44:27,360
And the left vertical axis
is percentage of the market

847
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:31,350
that these
application areas had.

848
00:44:31,350 --> 00:44:36,870
And so you look back at 1990,
and the marketplace was tiny.

849
00:44:36,870 --> 00:44:40,270
But DOD had it all.

850
00:44:40,270 --> 00:44:42,880
And the observation
was, this looks

851
00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:45,520
like a very useful
technology for lots

852
00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:47,740
of military applications.

853
00:44:47,740 --> 00:44:53,800
We would like there to be an
industrial marketplace there.

854
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:56,290
And I'll show you
a DOD contribution

855
00:44:56,290 --> 00:44:58,600
to making that happen
in the next slide.

856
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:01,350
But that has happened.

857
00:45:01,350 --> 00:45:05,240
And so you see
that DOD is today--

858
00:45:05,240 --> 00:45:05,870
where's today?

859
00:45:05,870 --> 00:45:07,280
Today is right here.

860
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:12,020
Is at 20%, headed toward 10%,
and maybe to something smaller.

861
00:45:12,020 --> 00:45:16,580
And that's success, because
other applications, namely

862
00:45:16,580 --> 00:45:20,030
consumer and computer
applications, have come in,

863
00:45:20,030 --> 00:45:23,420
and they buy the bulk
of the MCMs today.

864
00:45:23,420 --> 00:45:26,340
But that means
there's a big market.

865
00:45:26,340 --> 00:45:29,100
And that's good
because it's stable.

866
00:45:29,100 --> 00:45:30,030
It's large.

867
00:45:30,030 --> 00:45:31,860
It can reinvest in itself.

868
00:45:31,860 --> 00:45:35,980
Anytime you get large a market,
you get economy of scale.

869
00:45:35,980 --> 00:45:38,430
So the price to DOD went down.

870
00:45:38,430 --> 00:45:39,960
Well, how did that get there?

871
00:45:39,960 --> 00:45:42,260
This is a DARPA
investment in MCMs.

872
00:45:42,260 --> 00:45:44,250
It started back in
the very late '80s.

873
00:45:44,250 --> 00:45:47,150


874
00:45:47,150 --> 00:45:49,370
It has peaked and is going down.

875
00:45:49,370 --> 00:45:54,800
In '98 it goes low
and then stops.

876
00:45:54,800 --> 00:45:59,390
Early on, the investment was
in new generation technologies,

877
00:45:59,390 --> 00:46:04,440
partly in the universities,
partly in industry.

878
00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:07,830
That started ramping
down in '92, '93.

879
00:46:07,830 --> 00:46:10,680
But in fact, then
the flexible access--

880
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:12,690
so that many people
had their hands

881
00:46:12,690 --> 00:46:16,200
on this kind of technology,
for example, Moses

882
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:19,950
or a MUMPS kind of process, if
that's a familiar term to you,

883
00:46:19,950 --> 00:46:21,480
familiar acronym to you.

884
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:24,300
And that's ramping down.

885
00:46:24,300 --> 00:46:27,360
In the later stage in a
larger investment in any given

886
00:46:27,360 --> 00:46:31,350
year than the early
technology investment

887
00:46:31,350 --> 00:46:34,302
was maturing the
manufacturing process.

888
00:46:34,302 --> 00:46:35,760
And then DOD's out
of the business.

889
00:46:35,760 --> 00:46:40,250


890
00:46:40,250 --> 00:46:42,730
But again, that's the
definition of success.

891
00:46:42,730 --> 00:46:45,160
By the way, the market--

892
00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:49,210
I asked DARPA to upgrade
this slide for this talk.

893
00:46:49,210 --> 00:46:54,590
Last slide I had said that the
'96 market was at $800 million.

894
00:46:54,590 --> 00:46:57,640
And so I think it's
even going faster

895
00:46:57,640 --> 00:46:59,980
than the original
projections were.

896
00:46:59,980 --> 00:47:02,800
But the slope is very nice.

897
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:05,690
That is a decadal
DARPA investment.

898
00:47:05,690 --> 00:47:09,430
And that is not an unusual
thing for DARPA to do.

899
00:47:09,430 --> 00:47:14,320
That is to say, it's important
to develop some science

900
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:18,850
technology and
proceed to sustain

901
00:47:18,850 --> 00:47:26,020
an investment, a crafted
investment, these three

902
00:47:26,020 --> 00:47:30,850
kinds of things over
time to build that area.

903
00:47:30,850 --> 00:47:34,900
Let me close with, how do
universities and education

904
00:47:34,900 --> 00:47:38,630
of new scientists fit in?

905
00:47:38,630 --> 00:47:42,800
Federal government pays to
educate students, about 60,000

906
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:48,210
a year, primarily in
these four places,

907
00:47:48,210 --> 00:47:51,420
plus a whole bunch of others.

908
00:47:51,420 --> 00:47:54,330
You may think that NSF
funds most students

909
00:47:54,330 --> 00:48:01,180
in physical sciences
and engineering.

910
00:48:01,180 --> 00:48:02,815
But that's not the case.

911
00:48:02,815 --> 00:48:13,190
DOD basically educates about 75%
of the amount that NSF funds.

912
00:48:13,190 --> 00:48:16,000
And it's consistent over time.

913
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:18,630
It has been growing.

914
00:48:18,630 --> 00:48:20,580
My belief is,
notice this is '91.

915
00:48:20,580 --> 00:48:21,840
This study is hard to get.

916
00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:23,490
You don't get it
until years later.

917
00:48:23,490 --> 00:48:25,522
My belief is, it's
relatively stable

918
00:48:25,522 --> 00:48:26,730
or there's a slight downturn.

919
00:48:26,730 --> 00:48:34,300


920
00:48:34,300 --> 00:48:39,580
This is the basic
research budget for DOD.

921
00:48:39,580 --> 00:48:41,770
Who does the work?

922
00:48:41,770 --> 00:48:45,400
The majority of the work
is done by universities.

923
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:48,040
That grew dramatically
in the '80s.

924
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:50,728
It stabilized and took a jump.

925
00:48:50,728 --> 00:48:52,270
Don't pay any
attention to that jump.

926
00:48:52,270 --> 00:48:55,510
That was really a terrible
year for earmarks.

927
00:48:55,510 --> 00:48:59,135
And it has come down, but it's
still the same amount of work,

928
00:48:59,135 --> 00:49:00,760
even though the
dollars have come down.

929
00:49:00,760 --> 00:49:03,970


930
00:49:03,970 --> 00:49:08,290
Industry is a very
small player here.

931
00:49:08,290 --> 00:49:09,800
If you look at
applied research--

932
00:49:09,800 --> 00:49:16,150
so the bottom line is
that for basic research,

933
00:49:16,150 --> 00:49:19,120
the universities
are the largest set

934
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:23,930
of performing organizations,
the people that do the work.

935
00:49:23,930 --> 00:49:26,500
And I would expect
in DOE you would

936
00:49:26,500 --> 00:49:30,490
see the DOE labs much larger
than universities, although I

937
00:49:30,490 --> 00:49:31,410
don't know that.

938
00:49:31,410 --> 00:49:35,050
If you go to applied research,
the universities are down quite

939
00:49:35,050 --> 00:49:39,590
a bit to 10, 12%.

940
00:49:39,590 --> 00:49:43,310
And industry and the
government labs are about even.

941
00:49:43,310 --> 00:49:46,430
And if you go to the applied
technology, and the shorter

942
00:49:46,430 --> 00:49:49,760
term work, universities-- or
industry will dominate that.

943
00:49:49,760 --> 00:49:55,470


944
00:49:55,470 --> 00:49:58,050
I'd like to talk to you about
one government initiative

945
00:49:58,050 --> 00:50:00,630
because from time to
time the federal agencies

946
00:50:00,630 --> 00:50:03,570
will come together.

947
00:50:03,570 --> 00:50:05,430
This is a proposed initiative.

948
00:50:05,430 --> 00:50:07,070
It's called Next
Generation Internet.

949
00:50:07,070 --> 00:50:12,490


950
00:50:12,490 --> 00:50:14,680
There is the president's
budget that's

951
00:50:14,680 --> 00:50:20,080
on the hill, $100 million
that has been, quote, added.

952
00:50:20,080 --> 00:50:24,250
It came from somewhere.

953
00:50:24,250 --> 00:50:25,275
The majority from DOD.

954
00:50:25,275 --> 00:50:27,950


955
00:50:27,950 --> 00:50:31,520
But has been put in the agencies
for that explicit purpose.

956
00:50:31,520 --> 00:50:35,000
Congress has to agree to that.

957
00:50:35,000 --> 00:50:41,070
This I think is a very
important initiative.

958
00:50:41,070 --> 00:50:46,290
Now is the time to
catapult a very small piece

959
00:50:46,290 --> 00:50:52,170
of the community to living in
the next generation internet.

960
00:50:52,170 --> 00:50:57,120
And by that, what
we mean is connect

961
00:50:57,120 --> 00:51:03,780
a bunch of research universities
and federal research sites,

962
00:51:03,780 --> 00:51:08,340
so that you have at least
100 organizations at the end

963
00:51:08,340 --> 00:51:10,770
speeds of a 100 times
what they have now.

964
00:51:10,770 --> 00:51:14,498


965
00:51:14,498 --> 00:51:16,370
[INAUDIBLE]

966
00:51:16,370 --> 00:51:17,300
Well, it differs.

967
00:51:17,300 --> 00:51:19,940
What does LCS have now?

968
00:51:19,940 --> 00:51:22,350
At the high end, you have
a high end workstation,

969
00:51:22,350 --> 00:51:25,010
if you want to go
out to a telescope,

970
00:51:25,010 --> 00:51:28,070
or a high performance computer
outside, how fast can you go?

971
00:51:28,070 --> 00:51:37,390


972
00:51:37,390 --> 00:51:38,770
Let's see.

973
00:51:38,770 --> 00:51:41,020
You want a megabit, end
to end, from coming out

974
00:51:41,020 --> 00:51:43,600
of a workstation to
another workstation.

975
00:51:43,600 --> 00:51:49,690
Second goal is to have 10
organizations at a 1,000 times.

976
00:51:49,690 --> 00:51:53,640
So here, you have to have
gigabit backbones, and the end

977
00:51:53,640 --> 00:51:56,670
to end speed, which is what
my metric that really matters

978
00:51:56,670 --> 00:52:01,650
to me, you want as high as you
can possibly get it in there.

979
00:52:01,650 --> 00:52:03,930
You're going to be
pushing the technology.

980
00:52:03,930 --> 00:52:11,480
Second goal is to
experiment with, solve,

981
00:52:11,480 --> 00:52:15,980
the really plaguing problems
with network technologies.

982
00:52:15,980 --> 00:52:18,440
You want to have
survivable networks.

983
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:21,560
You want to be able to
service guarantee the very

984
00:52:21,560 --> 00:52:24,410
high performance customers.

985
00:52:24,410 --> 00:52:29,120
You want to solve whatever
is stopping cave to cave

986
00:52:29,120 --> 00:52:31,790
collaboration, for example.

987
00:52:31,790 --> 00:52:35,930
And third, and intended a
small percent of the investment

988
00:52:35,930 --> 00:52:38,340
would be to catalyze
new applications.

989
00:52:38,340 --> 00:52:43,160
But there is a vast investment
in already across the agencies

990
00:52:43,160 --> 00:52:45,380
in their mission
applications, and you just

991
00:52:45,380 --> 00:52:47,990
want to catalyze some of
them to move up faster.

992
00:52:47,990 --> 00:52:50,810
And here's where the money is.

993
00:52:50,810 --> 00:52:52,670
The DOD money is in DARPA.

994
00:52:52,670 --> 00:52:55,970
DARPA will be focused on
goal 1.2, the very high end

995
00:52:55,970 --> 00:53:02,690
infrastructure, and goal 2,
the networking technologies.

996
00:53:02,690 --> 00:53:03,305
Let me close.

997
00:53:03,305 --> 00:53:06,580


998
00:53:06,580 --> 00:53:09,580
I'll start with DOD, and
talk about some trends,

999
00:53:09,580 --> 00:53:12,880
and then talk about some trends
in the federal government

1000
00:53:12,880 --> 00:53:16,750
with respect to federal funding
of science and technology.

1001
00:53:16,750 --> 00:53:18,550
There has been an
investment shift

1002
00:53:18,550 --> 00:53:21,670
to address the new threats.

1003
00:53:21,670 --> 00:53:24,040
Nonlethal.

1004
00:53:24,040 --> 00:53:27,610
We've gone to the
universities asking for help

1005
00:53:27,610 --> 00:53:30,010
with humanitarian demining.

1006
00:53:30,010 --> 00:53:32,290
That is an area that
is not money limited;

1007
00:53:32,290 --> 00:53:33,460
its idea limited.

1008
00:53:33,460 --> 00:53:36,170
It's a very hard problem.

1009
00:53:36,170 --> 00:53:38,920
And so you see shifts of
funds from other areas,

1010
00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:40,750
and a shrinking budget,
in order to honor

1011
00:53:40,750 --> 00:53:42,520
those new missionaries.

1012
00:53:42,520 --> 00:53:47,420
Strong emphasis in DOD on
information technology.

1013
00:53:47,420 --> 00:53:49,540
And I showed you two
slides that talk about some

1014
00:53:49,540 --> 00:53:51,880
of the elements of that.

1015
00:53:51,880 --> 00:53:55,450
When the budgets go down in
the three military departments,

1016
00:53:55,450 --> 00:53:58,670
the services will protect
what is unique to them.

1017
00:53:58,670 --> 00:54:01,960
So for example, even though
the budget will go down,

1018
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:05,320
the Navy will invest what
it, in its corporate mind,

1019
00:54:05,320 --> 00:54:08,110
thinks it ought to
invest in Ocean Sciences.

1020
00:54:08,110 --> 00:54:12,610
And ONR is a very large
investor in Ocean Sciences.

1021
00:54:12,610 --> 00:54:16,430


1022
00:54:16,430 --> 00:54:19,610
Affordability and
dual use technology

1023
00:54:19,610 --> 00:54:23,120
affect even down into the six
one basic research budget.

1024
00:54:23,120 --> 00:54:30,220


1025
00:54:30,220 --> 00:54:34,010
Let me skip over offset strategy
because I have to define it.

1026
00:54:34,010 --> 00:54:38,920
Hard problems still
attract investment.

1027
00:54:38,920 --> 00:54:41,680
Things like detecting
and neutralizing

1028
00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:44,780
biological agents when they've
gotten into the human body.

1029
00:54:44,780 --> 00:54:48,190
And we are building a fairly
substantive program in DARPA

1030
00:54:48,190 --> 00:54:49,840
in that arena.

1031
00:54:49,840 --> 00:54:54,760
High density energy
storage is always

1032
00:54:54,760 --> 00:55:01,290
an issue, both commercially
and for the soldier.

1033
00:55:01,290 --> 00:55:03,960
You got some trends in the
federal government not closed.

1034
00:55:03,960 --> 00:55:05,730
I believe the science
and technology

1035
00:55:05,730 --> 00:55:10,590
budget is going to decline,
across the end of the decade,

1036
00:55:10,590 --> 00:55:14,580
something like 20%, all told.

1037
00:55:14,580 --> 00:55:17,850
I think it will be differential
in the agencies along the kind

1038
00:55:17,850 --> 00:55:20,410
of lines I showed you earlier.

1039
00:55:20,410 --> 00:55:25,540
I believe the
agencies will act to,

1040
00:55:25,540 --> 00:55:29,040
as the budget drops for those
agencies, in which it does,

1041
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:35,560
will align that budget even
more closely with their mission.

1042
00:55:35,560 --> 00:55:39,930
Multidisciplinary projects
will continue to proliferate.

1043
00:55:39,930 --> 00:55:41,600
I happen to believe
that's a good thing.

1044
00:55:41,600 --> 00:55:46,160


1045
00:55:46,160 --> 00:55:50,780
Information systems for this
decade, information technology,

1046
00:55:50,780 --> 00:55:53,030
will continue to
be very important.

1047
00:55:53,030 --> 00:55:56,720
There will be mission
applications systems.

1048
00:55:56,720 --> 00:56:00,320
For example, the Department
of Energy Nuclear

1049
00:56:00,320 --> 00:56:02,390
Stockpile Stewardship
Application,

1050
00:56:02,390 --> 00:56:05,930
which is ramping up
substantially in size.

1051
00:56:05,930 --> 00:56:08,280
This next generation
internet that I highlighted,

1052
00:56:08,280 --> 00:56:11,480
which I think is its
infrastructure program,

1053
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:14,570
partially, but I think
it's very important

1054
00:56:14,570 --> 00:56:17,150
to catapult some of the
research universities

1055
00:56:17,150 --> 00:56:18,890
up into the future.

1056
00:56:18,890 --> 00:56:22,340


1057
00:56:22,340 --> 00:56:24,470
Laboratories will
remain important,

1058
00:56:24,470 --> 00:56:25,850
or be important, emphasis.

1059
00:56:25,850 --> 00:56:29,510


1060
00:56:29,510 --> 00:56:32,840
Facilities cost more
and more, whether it's

1061
00:56:32,840 --> 00:56:37,610
Engineering, Laboratory
facilities, telescopes.

1062
00:56:37,610 --> 00:56:40,010
And you will continue
to see collaborations

1063
00:56:40,010 --> 00:56:45,320
to be able to buy instruments,
and shared facilities.

1064
00:56:45,320 --> 00:56:50,960
And the network makes it more
possible to work that way.

1065
00:56:50,960 --> 00:56:54,020
Like university industry
consortia will increase.

1066
00:56:54,020 --> 00:56:56,960
It's certainly been encouraged
by federal programs.

1067
00:56:56,960 --> 00:56:58,880
As the federal
investment goes down--

1068
00:56:58,880 --> 00:57:02,240
if it goes down as I
predicted-- you'll see industry

1069
00:57:02,240 --> 00:57:04,760
become more concerned,
and I think more

1070
00:57:04,760 --> 00:57:07,220
willing to invest in research.

1071
00:57:07,220 --> 00:57:10,400
And I will close with
one very bright spot.

1072
00:57:10,400 --> 00:57:13,310
About three weeks ago,
I signed a memorandum

1073
00:57:13,310 --> 00:57:15,770
of agreement between the
Department of Defense

1074
00:57:15,770 --> 00:57:18,680
and the Semiconductor
Industries Association

1075
00:57:18,680 --> 00:57:24,080
to jointly fund basic
research in the universities.

1076
00:57:24,080 --> 00:57:28,430
And the semiconductor
companies, and the semiconductor

1077
00:57:28,430 --> 00:57:32,360
equipment suppliers, are going
to put in $2 for every dollar

1078
00:57:32,360 --> 00:57:33,680
that we put in.

1079
00:57:33,680 --> 00:57:38,330
And the focus is long
term, basic research,

1080
00:57:38,330 --> 00:57:40,970
and in the universities.

1081
00:57:40,970 --> 00:57:43,910
And I think that is
a very positive step

1082
00:57:43,910 --> 00:57:45,830
by one industrial sector.

1083
00:57:45,830 --> 00:57:46,950
And I'll stop there.

1084
00:57:46,950 --> 00:57:50,870
I hope I've given you a
bit of a gestalt of what

1085
00:57:50,870 --> 00:57:54,470
the federal funding landscape
for science and technology is,

1086
00:57:54,470 --> 00:57:57,770
and if it makes more sense than
it did before you walked in.

1087
00:57:57,770 --> 00:57:59,732
Thank you.

1088
00:57:59,732 --> 00:58:04,946
[APPLAUSE]

1089
00:58:04,946 --> 00:58:06,380


1090
00:58:06,380 --> 00:58:07,788
We have time for questions.

1091
00:58:07,788 --> 00:58:10,600


1092
00:58:10,600 --> 00:58:12,030
On your next
generation internet,

1093
00:58:12,030 --> 00:58:14,770
it seems like one of
the big challenges

1094
00:58:14,770 --> 00:58:18,862
may not be technology, it's just
affording the long distance,

1095
00:58:18,862 --> 00:58:19,820
high bandwidth circuit.

1096
00:58:19,820 --> 00:58:21,062
Just paying for it.

1097
00:58:21,062 --> 00:58:23,020
That's what some of that
money will go to fund.

1098
00:58:23,020 --> 00:58:26,620


1099
00:58:26,620 --> 00:58:30,750
So in the context of the
globalization of everything,

1100
00:58:30,750 --> 00:58:33,960
what does that imply
about buying S&T results?

1101
00:58:33,960 --> 00:58:36,930
Do you argue is the
Defense Department turning

1102
00:58:36,930 --> 00:58:39,690
more to our allies for
science and technology work?

1103
00:58:39,690 --> 00:58:43,470


1104
00:58:43,470 --> 00:58:47,160
We're doing more
collaboration with allies.

1105
00:58:47,160 --> 00:58:52,170
More of it is in
development of systems

1106
00:58:52,170 --> 00:58:56,100
than in the science
and technology that I

1107
00:58:56,100 --> 00:58:57,450
was talking about here today.

1108
00:58:57,450 --> 00:59:02,660


1109
00:59:02,660 --> 00:59:05,660
In the science
technology world, you

1110
00:59:05,660 --> 00:59:09,440
want the best ideas and
the best performers.

1111
00:59:09,440 --> 00:59:10,670
We do fund--

1112
00:59:10,670 --> 00:59:16,910
DOD funds-- science and
technology activities

1113
00:59:16,910 --> 00:59:21,800
in Russia, in
Europe, increasingly

1114
00:59:21,800 --> 00:59:26,570
as part of our foreign
policy in central Europe,

1115
00:59:26,570 --> 00:59:30,590
a little bit over
in the Pacific Rim.

1116
00:59:30,590 --> 00:59:34,100
It's quite small, quite frankly.

1117
00:59:34,100 --> 00:59:38,330
This globalization is
a little bit difficult

1118
00:59:38,330 --> 00:59:44,690
for I think the National
security community

1119
00:59:44,690 --> 00:59:47,000
because, on the one hand,
you want the best science

1120
00:59:47,000 --> 00:59:48,960
and you want the
best technology.

1121
00:59:48,960 --> 00:59:52,160
On the other hand, surely
you want assured access

1122
00:59:52,160 --> 00:59:54,605
to it, no matter what,
for military purposes--

1123
00:59:54,605 --> 00:59:56,990
the DOD does.

1124
00:59:56,990 --> 00:59:59,780
And so there is a little
bit of ambivalence.

1125
00:59:59,780 --> 01:00:03,800
Certainly, the vast
bulk of investment

1126
01:00:03,800 --> 01:00:06,493
is made in this country.

1127
01:00:06,493 --> 01:00:07,910
On the other hand,
there are a lot

1128
01:00:07,910 --> 01:00:11,480
of companies that are
really international

1129
01:00:11,480 --> 01:00:15,650
and no longer belong
just to one country,

1130
01:00:15,650 --> 01:00:18,212
and there are a number of the
companies that we do need.

1131
01:00:18,212 --> 01:00:20,810


1132
01:00:20,810 --> 01:00:22,460
What's the process
for figuring out

1133
01:00:22,460 --> 01:00:25,415
which technologies you'd like
to jumpstart commercially,

1134
01:00:25,415 --> 01:00:27,470
like MCMs?

1135
01:00:27,470 --> 01:00:31,840
How do you decide
which would be good?

1136
01:00:31,840 --> 01:00:38,810
Really, I gave you a model
you a model that is used

1137
01:00:38,810 --> 01:00:40,733
from time to time in DARPA.

1138
01:00:40,733 --> 01:00:43,451


1139
01:00:43,451 --> 01:00:45,610
Millimeter microwave
is another example.

1140
01:00:45,610 --> 01:00:47,815
This is another example.

1141
01:00:47,815 --> 01:00:50,430


1142
01:00:50,430 --> 01:00:52,340
So typically, they
come out of DARPA,

1143
01:00:52,340 --> 01:00:56,060
and it is the DARPA
leadership that

1144
01:00:56,060 --> 01:01:00,622
resolves to make that large of,
and that kind of investment.

1145
01:01:00,622 --> 01:01:04,240


1146
01:01:04,240 --> 01:01:07,840
It is typically not
something that you

1147
01:01:07,840 --> 01:01:10,810
see done by the services.

1148
01:01:10,810 --> 01:01:13,570
The services, for
example the army,

1149
01:01:13,570 --> 01:01:16,360
has been a major proponent
for night vision.

1150
01:01:16,360 --> 01:01:20,350
This is a three
decade investment.

1151
01:01:20,350 --> 01:01:24,070
It is a technology that is ripe
for commercial application.

1152
01:01:24,070 --> 01:01:27,220
There are night vision
cameras in routine use

1153
01:01:27,220 --> 01:01:29,290
by law enforcement vehicles.

1154
01:01:29,290 --> 01:01:32,540
They cost something
like $10,000 to $20,000.

1155
01:01:32,540 --> 01:01:36,040
And so most people just
don't go out and buy them.

1156
01:01:36,040 --> 01:01:39,910
TI has a new business unit--

1157
01:01:39,910 --> 01:01:41,085
I saw it on CNN.

1158
01:01:41,085 --> 01:01:44,410
I think that is true--

1159
01:01:44,410 --> 01:01:50,170
aiming to build a $5,000
commercial vehicle camera, so

1160
01:01:50,170 --> 01:01:51,640
that you can just see at night.

1161
01:01:51,640 --> 01:01:54,250
That wouldn't be thinkable
without this three

1162
01:01:54,250 --> 01:01:57,880
decades of defense investment.

1163
01:01:57,880 --> 01:02:01,570
The army didn't intend to
build the commercial market.

1164
01:02:01,570 --> 01:02:05,350
They intended to build
ground advantage-- well,

1165
01:02:05,350 --> 01:02:07,240
some air advantage--

1166
01:02:07,240 --> 01:02:09,130
but it turns out that way.

1167
01:02:09,130 --> 01:02:12,680


1168
01:02:12,680 --> 01:02:14,820
We've heard many
arguments made for why

1169
01:02:14,820 --> 01:02:18,020
the defense and other research
budget should not be cut.

1170
01:02:18,020 --> 01:02:19,700
What are the kinds
of arguments that

1171
01:02:19,700 --> 01:02:25,010
make the most impact on the hill
for saying, don't cut as much

1172
01:02:25,010 --> 01:02:30,450
[INAUDIBLE] at least
when some of these go up.

1173
01:02:30,450 --> 01:02:30,960
Let's see.

1174
01:02:30,960 --> 01:02:32,835
There's a primary argument
that I'll give you

1175
01:02:32,835 --> 01:02:33,930
in a second [INAUDIBLE].

1176
01:02:33,930 --> 01:02:37,800
The primary argument,
the members of Congress

1177
01:02:37,800 --> 01:02:41,070
care very deeply about the
members of the armed forces.

1178
01:02:41,070 --> 01:02:43,410
They believe they are
responsible for them--

1179
01:02:43,410 --> 01:02:45,450
I mean, as they are--

1180
01:02:45,450 --> 01:02:51,600
and they understand that they
must be protected and equipped.

1181
01:02:51,600 --> 01:02:55,990
And they believe-- when I showed
you that stable investment

1182
01:02:55,990 --> 01:02:57,990
over time, that's only
possible because Congress

1183
01:02:57,990 --> 01:02:59,620
votes that budget.

1184
01:02:59,620 --> 01:03:02,760
And so they have supported
over time investment

1185
01:03:02,760 --> 01:03:07,110
in science and technology.

1186
01:03:07,110 --> 01:03:11,640
And the argument is we need
to develop a technology

1187
01:03:11,640 --> 01:03:16,470
advantage in order to support
and protect our forces.

1188
01:03:16,470 --> 01:03:18,030
Let me define the
offset strategy.

1189
01:03:18,030 --> 01:03:20,790
The offset strategy
comes from the Cold War.

1190
01:03:20,790 --> 01:03:27,570
It was how are our forces
going to defeat numerically

1191
01:03:27,570 --> 01:03:30,300
larger Soviet forces?

1192
01:03:30,300 --> 01:03:32,960
And the answer was
the offset strategy.

1193
01:03:32,960 --> 01:03:34,950
You equip them with
better technology.

1194
01:03:34,950 --> 01:03:37,200
That's the offset strategy.

1195
01:03:37,200 --> 01:03:40,058
I've never heard anybody
redefine it, but on the slide,

1196
01:03:40,058 --> 01:03:41,100
I've said it's redefined.

1197
01:03:41,100 --> 01:03:45,510
It has been redefined to
our forces need technology

1198
01:03:45,510 --> 01:03:51,900
that, ideally, causes minimal
casualties, or no casualties,

1199
01:03:51,900 --> 01:03:57,340
and minimal, or controlled,
collateral damage.

1200
01:03:57,340 --> 01:04:00,210
So that you only destroy
what you intend to destroy.

1201
01:04:00,210 --> 01:04:02,915
And you saw that in spades
in Desert Storm, when

1202
01:04:02,915 --> 01:04:04,290
you could destroy
a building that

1203
01:04:04,290 --> 01:04:05,915
was sitting next to
a hospital, and you

1204
01:04:05,915 --> 01:04:07,830
didn't hurt the hospital.

1205
01:04:07,830 --> 01:04:10,170
And that is today's
offset strategy.

1206
01:04:10,170 --> 01:04:13,080
But it says you've got
to have that technology,

1207
01:04:13,080 --> 01:04:14,890
and you must have advantage.

1208
01:04:14,890 --> 01:04:17,700
And that's the
number one argument.

1209
01:04:17,700 --> 01:04:19,620
There's some other
arguments that

1210
01:04:19,620 --> 01:04:21,870
relate to just national
security that they

1211
01:04:21,870 --> 01:04:24,210
buy, but let me give you
a secondary argument that

1212
01:04:24,210 --> 01:04:25,720
is very important.

1213
01:04:25,720 --> 01:04:28,860
And that is that a
strength of this country

1214
01:04:28,860 --> 01:04:31,800
is people, like
the students here,

1215
01:04:31,800 --> 01:04:36,780
who are educated in physical
sciences and engineering,

1216
01:04:36,780 --> 01:04:40,890
and who build the things,
who go into the universities

1217
01:04:40,890 --> 01:04:44,250
and do research in the
future, go into industry,

1218
01:04:44,250 --> 01:04:47,040
and build the material.

1219
01:04:47,040 --> 01:04:50,520
And besides that, the
members care deeply

1220
01:04:50,520 --> 01:04:52,900
about the universities
in their districts.

1221
01:04:52,900 --> 01:04:58,830
I mean, they really
genuinely do.

1222
01:04:58,830 --> 01:05:03,600
And so they are quite
sympathetic, particularly

1223
01:05:03,600 --> 01:05:06,210
to arguments about
their University,

1224
01:05:06,210 --> 01:05:08,250
but because of that,
to the argument

1225
01:05:08,250 --> 01:05:13,710
that it's important for DOD to
fund universities in general.

1226
01:05:13,710 --> 01:05:18,023
There are lapses, but
by and large, that

1227
01:05:18,023 --> 01:05:19,815
is an argument that
will sway the Congress.

1228
01:05:19,815 --> 01:05:23,200


1229
01:05:23,200 --> 01:05:27,856
Do you have a view about
the Federation Lab Contest,

1230
01:05:27,856 --> 01:05:31,026
like TRL is currently pursuing?

1231
01:05:31,026 --> 01:05:32,890
I have a strong view on that.

1232
01:05:32,890 --> 01:05:34,870
I think it's an excellent idea.

1233
01:05:34,870 --> 01:05:38,680
The basic Army Federated
Lab Program actually

1234
01:05:38,680 --> 01:05:42,700
was started a
couple of years ago,

1235
01:05:42,700 --> 01:05:49,330
and it is a way of, in
essence, outsourcing work

1236
01:05:49,330 --> 01:05:51,520
that you would otherwise
do in the laboratory.

1237
01:05:51,520 --> 01:05:53,320
That's the way the
army thinks about it.

1238
01:05:53,320 --> 01:05:56,260
It is a way of
hiring, literally,

1239
01:05:56,260 --> 01:05:59,290
a satellite or a
related laboratory,

1240
01:05:59,290 --> 01:06:02,110
and you can go to the
best place, and industry,

1241
01:06:02,110 --> 01:06:04,570
and University to do
that kind of work,

1242
01:06:04,570 --> 01:06:10,620
and not have it governed by the
Civil Service Personnel System.

1243
01:06:10,620 --> 01:06:15,070
I thought it was
an inspired idea.

1244
01:06:15,070 --> 01:06:19,120
It has a checkered record
because Congress did not

1245
01:06:19,120 --> 01:06:20,110
support it.

1246
01:06:20,110 --> 01:06:24,630
I was talking to Arvind
earlier about this.

1247
01:06:24,630 --> 01:06:31,900
The army asked for money to
start five Federated labs

1248
01:06:31,900 --> 01:06:34,750
in five different areas.

1249
01:06:34,750 --> 01:06:37,720
I certainly went to bat for
that along with the army

1250
01:06:37,720 --> 01:06:40,040
because I thought it
was a very good idea.

1251
01:06:40,040 --> 01:06:44,170
The Congress gave the
army money for three.

1252
01:06:44,170 --> 01:06:47,330
The Congress remains unconvinced
that this is a good idea.

1253
01:06:47,330 --> 01:06:50,500
I think they will continue
to fund, at least I certainly

1254
01:06:50,500 --> 01:06:52,270
hope so, at the level--

1255
01:06:52,270 --> 01:06:55,630
it is still an uphill
argument with the Congress.

1256
01:06:55,630 --> 01:06:57,850
It seems inspired
to me, and I don't

1257
01:06:57,850 --> 01:07:01,330
know why it's so difficult
to convince them.

1258
01:07:01,330 --> 01:07:05,600
And I go a step further to
get to a completely different

1259
01:07:05,600 --> 01:07:06,100
point.

1260
01:07:06,100 --> 01:07:09,520
And I remarked, when we're
talking about this earlier,

1261
01:07:09,520 --> 01:07:12,340
that when we were
talking to the Congress,

1262
01:07:12,340 --> 01:07:16,150
never was it ever visible to
me that anybody from industry,

1263
01:07:16,150 --> 01:07:19,180
or anybody from
the universities,

1264
01:07:19,180 --> 01:07:22,540
knew that the Congress
was reacting negatively,

1265
01:07:22,540 --> 01:07:23,950
and ever went to talk to them.

1266
01:07:23,950 --> 01:07:27,490
That may have happened,
and I just never saw it.

1267
01:07:27,490 --> 01:07:30,250
I think that is unfortunate.

1268
01:07:30,250 --> 01:07:35,200
What's happened over the last
couple of years because funds,

1269
01:07:35,200 --> 01:07:36,790
particularly basic
research funds

1270
01:07:36,790 --> 01:07:39,400
have gone down in some areas,
that the universities have been

1271
01:07:39,400 --> 01:07:43,360
mobilized to talk to
members of Congress

1272
01:07:43,360 --> 01:07:45,460
about the importance
of basic research,

1273
01:07:45,460 --> 01:07:48,880
and of University
research, and that

1274
01:07:48,880 --> 01:07:52,390
is having a positive effect.

1275
01:07:52,390 --> 01:07:56,320
I will tell you, I testified
twice in the last month,

1276
01:07:56,320 --> 01:07:58,540
once in the house and
once in the Senate.

1277
01:07:58,540 --> 01:08:01,450
And both times, the
Chairman of the Committee

1278
01:08:01,450 --> 01:08:05,590
opened by chewing me out
for the reduction in science

1279
01:08:05,590 --> 01:08:07,720
and technology.

1280
01:08:07,720 --> 01:08:11,020
And that was music to my ears.

1281
01:08:11,020 --> 01:08:14,530
But that was because
the universities

1282
01:08:14,530 --> 01:08:16,000
and to some extent,
industry, who

1283
01:08:16,000 --> 01:08:19,899
will go to bat for basic
research have gone and talked

1284
01:08:19,899 --> 01:08:22,185
to the members, and
said, this is important.

1285
01:08:22,185 --> 01:08:24,270
DOD is reducing this.

1286
01:08:24,270 --> 01:08:27,700
You ought to not
let them do that.

1287
01:08:27,700 --> 01:08:31,810
And it's that kind of talking
to the hill that I think

1288
01:08:31,810 --> 01:08:36,370
could have, in fact, caused the
Federated Army Program to be

1289
01:08:36,370 --> 01:08:38,899
in a better position.

1290
01:08:38,899 --> 01:08:42,330
But more of that
dialogue is happening.

1291
01:08:42,330 --> 01:08:45,670
For example, the American
Association of Universities

1292
01:08:45,670 --> 01:08:48,370
is sponsoring some
demonstrations

1293
01:08:48,370 --> 01:08:53,830
of University research
projects and products

1294
01:08:53,830 --> 01:08:55,120
within the next month.

1295
01:08:55,120 --> 01:08:57,819
I don't know whether MIT
is involved-- they are

1296
01:08:57,819 --> 01:09:00,700
[INAUDIBLE] involved in that.

1297
01:09:00,700 --> 01:09:01,960
This has been very successful.

1298
01:09:01,960 --> 01:09:04,420
This is about year three.

1299
01:09:04,420 --> 01:09:08,350
And it's actually in one of
the Congressional buildings,

1300
01:09:08,350 --> 01:09:11,319
and the staffers come,
and then the members come.

1301
01:09:11,319 --> 01:09:13,149
And this didn't used to happen.

1302
01:09:13,149 --> 01:09:16,590
It's a very good thing to do.

1303
01:09:16,590 --> 01:09:17,200
Yeah.

1304
01:09:17,200 --> 01:09:20,050
That may be a good
place for my comment.

1305
01:09:20,050 --> 01:09:24,040
Namely, for your S&T stuff,
the limit to assess it

1306
01:09:24,040 --> 01:09:27,130
is not productivity, which is
manufacturing and production,

1307
01:09:27,130 --> 01:09:29,090
but effectiveness.

1308
01:09:29,090 --> 01:09:31,990
And in the past, we had
technology transfer.

1309
01:09:31,990 --> 01:09:35,229
I notice that your slide
had technology insertion.

1310
01:09:35,229 --> 01:09:37,840
But a couple of years ago,
I started to hear just a few

1311
01:09:37,840 --> 01:09:40,479
times-- it hasn't grown
enough yet to satisfy me--

1312
01:09:40,479 --> 01:09:42,880
technology infusion.

1313
01:09:42,880 --> 01:09:45,783
Think of the difference
between transfer,

1314
01:09:45,783 --> 01:09:47,450
hand it over, drop
it at a loading dock,

1315
01:09:47,450 --> 01:09:50,939
and go, versus inserted,
jab in the arm,

1316
01:09:50,939 --> 01:09:54,310
and go, versus pay
attention to what's

1317
01:09:54,310 --> 01:09:56,420
happening on the other
side of that airbase.

1318
01:09:56,420 --> 01:09:58,888
And I think that
the University--

1319
01:09:58,888 --> 01:10:01,180
in particular with the kinds
of things you were talking

1320
01:10:01,180 --> 01:10:03,240
about in a bunch of years--

1321
01:10:03,240 --> 01:10:06,640
environment could
really stimulate that.

1322
01:10:06,640 --> 01:10:08,537
I like for
terminology to reflect

1323
01:10:08,537 --> 01:10:10,620
what we're trying to
accomplish, I think infusion.

1324
01:10:10,620 --> 01:10:15,830


1325
01:10:15,830 --> 01:10:19,620
I'll buy that Color
of Money slide.

1326
01:10:19,620 --> 01:10:22,260
I was looking at
that, and I think

1327
01:10:22,260 --> 01:10:26,265
those comments proved that some
of the red lines over DARPA's

1328
01:10:26,265 --> 01:10:27,850
[INAUDIBLE].

1329
01:10:27,850 --> 01:10:29,970
I can actually
quantify some of that.

1330
01:10:29,970 --> 01:10:35,550
Basically, if you don't count
the federally funded research

1331
01:10:35,550 --> 01:10:38,130
and development centers,
like Lincoln Labs,

1332
01:10:38,130 --> 01:10:41,250
or what are called University
applied research centers,

1333
01:10:41,250 --> 01:10:47,040
like Applied Physics Lab
at Johns Hopkins DOD--

1334
01:10:47,040 --> 01:10:49,350
at least in the last year
I know the numbers for,

1335
01:10:49,350 --> 01:10:52,080
which is a couple back--

1336
01:10:52,080 --> 01:10:58,960
invested $1.1 billion
in universities.

1337
01:10:58,960 --> 01:11:01,320
But I know from a
different data collection

1338
01:11:01,320 --> 01:11:05,910
that it was 60% of the six
one budget, the basic research

1339
01:11:05,910 --> 01:11:12,120
budget, so it was
about $650 million.

1340
01:11:12,120 --> 01:11:15,220
And so the rest must
come out of six two.

1341
01:11:15,220 --> 01:11:17,310
I suspect that a reasonable
proportion of that

1342
01:11:17,310 --> 01:11:19,757
does come out of DARPA.

1343
01:11:19,757 --> 01:11:24,220
What I'm curious about is,
from this side of the fence,

1344
01:11:24,220 --> 01:11:26,133
it's not obvious
where the six one

1345
01:11:26,133 --> 01:11:28,300
money that the Army, the
Navy, and the the Air Force

1346
01:11:28,300 --> 01:11:30,270
is actually going.

1347
01:11:30,270 --> 01:11:34,670
Is it going to fund things
like MRL, or is it--

1348
01:11:34,670 --> 01:11:36,892
where does it wind up?

1349
01:11:36,892 --> 01:11:45,200


1350
01:11:45,200 --> 01:11:48,090
Winds up here.

1351
01:11:48,090 --> 01:11:50,010
This is the six one budget.

1352
01:11:50,010 --> 01:11:51,390
This is just DOD?

1353
01:11:51,390 --> 01:11:52,680
This is only DOD.

1354
01:11:52,680 --> 01:11:54,780
Yeah.

1355
01:11:54,780 --> 01:11:56,070
This is hard enough to get.

1356
01:11:56,070 --> 01:11:59,580
You can't do it through
The federal government.

1357
01:11:59,580 --> 01:12:03,900
The bulk of the
money, say 60%, it

1358
01:12:03,900 --> 01:12:11,190
goes to University performers,
University organizations.

1359
01:12:11,190 --> 01:12:15,390
10% to industry, and the other
is something like Lincoln Labs.

1360
01:12:15,390 --> 01:12:19,080


1361
01:12:19,080 --> 01:12:21,145
Let's say I distinguish
between the FFRDC's--

1362
01:12:21,145 --> 01:12:23,970


1363
01:12:23,970 --> 01:12:28,170
apologies, Walt,
wherever you are--

1364
01:12:28,170 --> 01:12:31,200
but the university
money is different

1365
01:12:31,200 --> 01:12:34,440
because that is the
investment that is also

1366
01:12:34,440 --> 01:12:37,890
training the future
scientists and engineers

1367
01:12:37,890 --> 01:12:39,030
sort of from the beginning.

1368
01:12:39,030 --> 01:12:43,960
And it's important to understand
what's happening there.

1369
01:12:43,960 --> 01:12:47,050
And so, that's why I
make that distinction.

1370
01:12:47,050 --> 01:12:51,190


1371
01:12:51,190 --> 01:12:54,100
Could you just say a little
more and get your input

1372
01:12:54,100 --> 01:12:58,090
why that money is seen
as grant money out of lab

1373
01:12:58,090 --> 01:12:59,410
because [INAUDIBLE].

1374
01:12:59,410 --> 01:13:15,380


1375
01:13:15,380 --> 01:13:18,581
And similarly exorbitant
[INAUDIBLE] properties

1376
01:13:18,581 --> 01:13:20,072
are [INAUDIBLE].

1377
01:13:20,072 --> 01:13:26,220


1378
01:13:26,220 --> 01:13:27,862
I have a question.

1379
01:13:27,862 --> 01:13:29,820
The time frame for
different kinds of research,

1380
01:13:29,820 --> 01:13:31,440
six one, six two, six
three, it's very different.

1381
01:13:31,440 --> 01:13:32,690
Six one is very long term.

1382
01:13:32,690 --> 01:13:34,313
Six two, more [INAUDIBLE].

1383
01:13:34,313 --> 01:13:35,230
Six three, very short.

1384
01:13:35,230 --> 01:13:38,528
But the mechanisms for funding
seem to be all sort of similar.

1385
01:13:38,528 --> 01:13:40,320
I was just wondering
if there's, again, you

1386
01:13:40,320 --> 01:13:42,630
feel this need for
other mechanisms

1387
01:13:42,630 --> 01:13:45,700
to adapt their funding cycles
to this style of research?

1388
01:13:45,700 --> 01:13:48,240


1389
01:13:48,240 --> 01:13:50,955
When you say mechanism,
so generation of grants?

1390
01:13:50,955 --> 01:13:54,270
Generation of
grants, for example.

1391
01:13:54,270 --> 01:13:54,870
Let's see.

1392
01:13:54,870 --> 01:13:59,370
I showed you one example where
it was a decade investment

1393
01:13:59,370 --> 01:14:01,170
to grow something.

1394
01:14:01,170 --> 01:14:03,300
That was the multichip
module example.

1395
01:14:03,300 --> 01:14:05,610
Those are not decade long
grants, though, are they?

1396
01:14:05,610 --> 01:14:09,534
No, those are not
decade long grants.

1397
01:14:09,534 --> 01:14:10,290
Let's see.

1398
01:14:10,290 --> 01:14:15,480
A good example down at
the basic research level

1399
01:14:15,480 --> 01:14:19,710
was the early speech
recognition projects.

1400
01:14:19,710 --> 01:14:22,920
DARPA has had a program
in speech recognition

1401
01:14:22,920 --> 01:14:25,080
for probably three decades.

1402
01:14:25,080 --> 01:14:30,045
And early on, back in the
heyday of speech recognition

1403
01:14:30,045 --> 01:14:33,390
when we couldn't do anything,
when we're just getting

1404
01:14:33,390 --> 01:14:37,320
started, there was a goal.

1405
01:14:37,320 --> 01:14:40,320
And that goal was
1,000 word vocabulary,

1406
01:14:40,320 --> 01:14:44,550
standard microphone, early
on, disjointed speech and then

1407
01:14:44,550 --> 01:14:50,190
continuous speech,
non-heroic processing.

1408
01:14:50,190 --> 01:14:52,560
And there was a goal--

1409
01:14:52,560 --> 01:14:53,880
I don't know why this is funny.

1410
01:14:53,880 --> 01:14:55,650
There must be
something I don't know.

1411
01:14:55,650 --> 01:14:59,520
But that was the goal, and a
number of places were funded.

1412
01:14:59,520 --> 01:15:02,217
And then you partly got there.

1413
01:15:02,217 --> 01:15:03,300
You all the way got there.

1414
01:15:03,300 --> 01:15:05,880
And so there were just
sequences of grants.

1415
01:15:05,880 --> 01:15:10,230
So while the grants
were not really long--

1416
01:15:10,230 --> 01:15:12,240
I mean, I assume they
were three to five year

1417
01:15:12,240 --> 01:15:13,710
kind of time frame--

1418
01:15:13,710 --> 01:15:17,520
there were literally
decade goals,

1419
01:15:17,520 --> 01:15:19,570
and they changed over time.

1420
01:15:19,570 --> 01:15:23,610
And so there was a coherent
emphasis, over decades,

1421
01:15:23,610 --> 01:15:26,490
to get to speech recognition.

1422
01:15:26,490 --> 01:15:32,730
And so it's not cast wholly in
terms of the mechanisms run,

1423
01:15:32,730 --> 01:15:35,130
but setting a goal,
and going after it--

1424
01:15:35,130 --> 01:15:37,210
Stability in the
goals, and funding.

1425
01:15:37,210 --> 01:15:42,255
And there is stability of a
fair percentage of the goals.

1426
01:15:42,255 --> 01:15:46,310


1427
01:15:46,310 --> 01:15:47,337
We'll stop here then.

1428
01:15:47,337 --> 01:15:48,170
Thank you very much.

1429
01:15:48,170 --> 01:15:49,955
Thank you.

1430
01:15:49,955 --> 01:15:54,230
[APPLAUSE]

1431
01:15:54,230 --> 01:15:55,463
That was excellent.

1432
01:15:55,463 --> 01:15:56,130
I learned a lot.

1433
01:15:56,130 --> 01:15:57,990
Thank you.

1434
01:15:57,990 --> 01:16:05,000